De-Escalation Agreement Syria

BEIRUT – Hundreds of civilians were killed in January in attacks on so-called de-escalation zones in Syria, undermining a Russian-led agreement that world powers have plundered as a step toward a comprehensive ceasefire in the country. The Syrian government said it would abide by the agreement, but would continue to fight “terrorism” wherever it exists – a language used by most armed rebel groups fighting government forces. Washington, which has promoted only a de-escalation zone in the southwest, has shown that it is unwilling or unable to stop government violations, as evidenced by its failure to respond to the government`s capture of a rebel enclave in Beit Jinn. “If it`s a de-escalation, then I`d hate to imagine what an escalation looks like,” said Sara Kayyali, Syria researcher at Human Rights Watch. The plan calls for a cessation of hostilities between rebel groups and forces that, on behalf of Bashar al-Assad`s government, are fighting in four so-called de-escalation zones in areas largely held by the opposition, with Russia, Turkey and Iran acting as guarantors. In October, Turkey sent troops to Idlib with the stated aim of enforcing the de-escalation zone. But instead of deploying on front lines between the rebels and the regime, Turkish observers were sent to areas adjacent to the Kurdish enclave of Afrin, now under attack by Ankara. As a result, some have accused Turkey of using the agreement to advance its own agenda in northern Syria, instead of trying to respect the rules between the belligerents. But the reduction in fighting in de-escalation zones was likely because pro-government forces were advancing towards eastern Syria to fight Daesh in its last strongholds. As soon as the fighting stopped in eastern Syria, the government activated front lines in Idlib, Hama and Eastern Ghouta, leading some analysts to doubt that the de-escalation zone agreement was used to help the Syrian government in its fighting.

The Pentagon said the de-escalation agreement would not affect the U.S.-led air offensive against Daesh. The joint working group establishes, on that date, the maps of de-escalation zones and safe zones to be agreed by consensus of the guarantors, as well as the draft regulation of the joint working group. Meanwhile, the southern de-escalation zone, which some analysts have touted as a success, has not been spared. In January, the government seized a rebel pocket in the town of Beit Jinn, near the Golan Heights, in violation of the agreement. In addition, the Institute for the Study of War warned last week that pro-government forces were preparing for an “immediate attack” in southern Syria to continue missing the deal. This calls into question the permanence of the only Washington-sponsored de-escalation zone. De-escalation zones were part of a strategy aimed at restoring control of the majority of Syria. Apart from four established areas, a ceasefire was announced, blocking the possibility of any rebel activity, while Assad was able to concentrate his army, send it to different areas and destroy rebel enclaves.

April 8, 2021

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